Iranian Attitudes on JCPOA pre-Trump Announcement

Considering President Trump’s decision on withdrawing United States from Iran nuclear deal, we would like to attract your attention to a survey IranPoll conducted among a representative sample of Iranians in the middle of April 2018.

The survey was designed to track the trends on some of the previously asked questions regarding Iranian people’s attitudes toward the nuclear deal and Iran’s state of economy.

The survey shows that an increasing majority of Iranians are saying that Iran’s economy is bad and that it is getting worse. And increasing majority also say that the nuclear deal has not yet been able to improve the living condition of ordinary Iranians. These perceptions have taken a toll both on President Rouhani and the JCPOA’s popularity in Iran. While both still enjoy a majority support; support for both is at an all times low.

Iranians almost unanimously say that they have no confidence in the United States to live by the terms of the nuclear agreement and think that because of US pressures, European countries have been hesitant to trade and invest in Iran. Confidence in other P5+1 countries to uphold the deal has also dropped since Jan. 2018.

In response to a question asking what Iran should do if the United States violates the agreement, a growing majority say that Iran should retaliate by restarting the aspects of its nuclear program that it had suspended as a result of the JCPOA.

Telephone interviews of 1,003 Iranians were done April 13–17, 2018. The margin of error was +/- 3.1%. It was a nationally representative survey using our standard probabilistic sampling as detailed here.

 

Main Findings:

Below please find the results of this survey in greater detail based on a presentation made by Dr. Amir Farmanesh CEO of People Analytics (IranPoll). Also, the PDF version of this survey is available here.

 

Media Coverage:

Below are links to the articles covering this poll:

Iranian Public Opinion after the Protests

University of Maryland CISSM has published its most recent study based on another nationally representative survey that were conducted in Iran by IranPoll for the University of Maryland. CISSM was responsible for designing the questionnaires, getting feedback on them from relevant policy experts and practitioners, performing the analysis, and putting together the final report.

The survey was conducted a week after the protests and its results were made public at the Atlantic Council (Washington DC) on Friday, Feb. 2. 

The survey covers a wide range of issues, including the recent protests, Iran’s regional involvements, attitudes toward the JCPOA and its future, and current political and economic state of affairs in Iran.

Telephone interviews of 1,002 Iranians were done January 16–24, 2018. The margin of error was +/- 3.1%. It was a nationally representative survey using our standard probabilistic sampling as detailed here.

 

Main Findings:

The results of this survey as presented at the Atlantic Council are provided below. The detailed frequency tables of the poll are available here.

 

 

Media Coverage:

Below are links to the articles covering this poll:

4th Annual Europe – Iran Forum Expert Survey: The United States will re-impose sanctions lifted under JCPOA if Iran refuses to accept President Trump’s demands

A survey taken among a sample of business, government, and civil society leaders, most of whom attended the 4th annual Europe -Iran Forum in Zurich, Switzerland, reveals that most of the respondents anticipate the United States to re-impose the sanctions that were lifted under the nuclear agreement (JCPOA), if Iran refuses to agree to President Trump’s demands. Also, a majority of both Iranian and non-Iranian expert respondents agree that if the sanctions are re-imposed, European companies would become averse to trading and investing in Iran.

This survey which was conducted by IranPoll in partnership with Bourse & Bazaar also shows that overwhelming majorities of both Iranian and non-Iranian expert respondents agree with the dominant view among the Iranian public that multinational companies are moving slower than they could to trade and invest in Iran primarily out of their fear of the United States. Also, while majorities of both Iranian and non-Iranian expert respondents voice confidence that Iran as well as Europe will live up to their obligations under the deal, most say that they do not have such a confidence in the United States.

On another topic, while both Iranian and non-Iranian expert respondents say that Iran’s political system is very or somewhat stable, most do not regard Iran’s economy to be globally competitive.

Main Findings:

The results of this survey were presented at the 4th annual Europe – Iran Forum by Dr. Amir Farmanesh CEO of People Analytics (IranPoll). The forum agenda is available here.

PowerPoint slides presented in the forum are available here.

Dr. Amir Farmanesh, CEO of People Analytics (IranPoll), builds on he results presented in his keynote from the first day of EIF4 in this research update.