Iranian Attitudes on JCPOA pre-Trump Announcement

Considering President Trump’s decision on withdrawing United States from Iran nuclear deal, we would like to attract your attention to a survey IranPoll conducted among a representative sample of Iranians in the middle of April 2018.

The survey was designed to track the trends on some of the previously asked questions regarding Iranian people’s attitudes toward the nuclear deal and Iran’s state of economy.

The survey shows that an increasing majority of Iranians are saying that Iran’s economy is bad and that it is getting worse. And increasing majority also say that the nuclear deal has not yet been able to improve the living condition of ordinary Iranians. These perceptions have taken a toll both on President Rouhani and the JCPOA’s popularity in Iran. While both still enjoy a majority support; support for both is at an all times low.

Iranians almost unanimously say that they have no confidence in the United States to live by the terms of the nuclear agreement and think that because of US pressures, European countries have been hesitant to trade and invest in Iran. Confidence in other P5+1 countries to uphold the deal has also dropped since Jan. 2018.

In response to a question asking what Iran should do if the United States violates the agreement, a growing majority say that Iran should retaliate by restarting the aspects of its nuclear program that it had suspended as a result of the JCPOA.

Telephone interviews of 1,003 Iranians were done April 13–17, 2018. The margin of error was +/- 3.1%. It was a nationally representative survey using our standard probabilistic sampling as detailed here.

 

Main Findings:

Below please find the results of this survey in greater detail. Also, the PDF version of this survey is available here.

 

Media Coverage:

Below are links to the articles covering this poll:

Iranian Public Opinion after the Protests

University of Maryland CISSM has published its most recent study based on another nationally representative survey that were conducted in Iran by IranPoll for the University of Maryland. CISSM was responsible for designing the questionnaires, getting feedback on them from relevant policy experts and practitioners, performing the analysis, and putting together the final report.

The survey was conducted a week after the protests and its results were made public at the Atlantic Council (Washington DC) on Friday, Feb. 2. 

The survey covers a wide range of issues, including the recent protests, Iran’s regional involvements, attitudes toward the JCPOA and its future, and current political and economic state of affairs in Iran.

Telephone interviews of 1,002 Iranians were done January 16–24, 2018. The margin of error was +/- 3.1%. It was a nationally representative survey using our standard probabilistic sampling as detailed here.

 

Main Findings:

The results of this survey as presented at the Atlantic Council are provided below. The detailed frequency tables of the poll are available here.

 

 

Media Coverage:

Below are links to the articles covering this poll:

4th Annual Europe – Iran Forum Expert Survey: The United States will re-impose sanctions lifted under JCPOA if Iran refuses to accept President Trump’s demands

A survey taken among a sample of business, government, and civil society leaders, most of whom attended the 4th annual Europe -Iran Forum in Zurich, Switzerland, reveals that most of the respondents anticipate the United States to re-impose the sanctions that were lifted under the nuclear agreement (JCPOA), if Iran refuses to agree to President Trump’s demands. Also, a majority of both Iranian and non-Iranian expert respondents agree that if the sanctions are re-imposed, European companies would become averse to trading and investing in Iran.

This survey which was conducted by IranPoll in partnership with Bourse & Bazaar also shows that overwhelming majorities of both Iranian and non-Iranian expert respondents agree with the dominant view among the Iranian public that multinational companies are moving slower than they could to trade and invest in Iran primarily out of their fear of the United States. Also, while majorities of both Iranian and non-Iranian expert respondents voice confidence that Iran as well as Europe will live up to their obligations under the deal, most say that they do not have such a confidence in the United States.

On another topic, while both Iranian and non-Iranian expert respondents say that Iran’s political system is very or somewhat stable, most do not regard Iran’s economy to be globally competitive.

Main Findings:

The results of this survey were presented at the 4th annual Europe – Iran Forum. The forum agenda is available here.

PowerPoint slides presented in the forum are available here.

Iranians Support Greater Economic Engagement with Other Countries

Large majorities of Iranians say growing trade and business tides between Iran and other countries is mostly beneficial for Iran and believe that Iran would mostly benefit from allowing multinational companies to freely compete with Iranian companies. Large majorities also think that Iran should make it easier for multinational companies to operate inside Iran.

Multinational companies, however, face many challenges in Iran. A majority of Iranians think that the government should maintain tariffs that protect Iranian industries. As long as such tariffs are maintained, it is going to be unlikely for the multinational companies to be able to compete with Iranian companies on price. 

Also, most Iranian households use consumer products that are produced in Iran and multinational companies will have to work extra hard to convince Iranians to switch. This is going to be particularly challenging considering the fact that Iranians consider most products that are sold in Iran as European-made to be counterfeits.

Another important challenge multinational companies face is a perception among Iranians that multinational companies do not take the interests of the Iranian people into account and are no well acquainted with the needs and tastes of the Iranian people. To overcome this challenge, multinational companies need to consider and study the needs and tastes of their Iranian consumers.

Finally, while Iranians continue to support the JCPOA and have confidence that Europeans will live up to their obligations under the agreement, an increasing majority indicate that they are not confident that the United States will live up to its end of the bargain. Iranians also say that multinational companies have moved slower than they could to invest in Iran primarily out of their fear of the United States.

The survey was conducted in partnership with Bourse&Bazaar among a representative urban sample of 700 Iranians. The margin of error for this study was +/-3.7. The fieldwork for this conducted in August 2017.

Main Findings:

The results of this survey were presented at the 4th annual Europe – Iran Forum. The forum agenda is available here.

The detailed full results of the survey are available here. The PowerPoint slides presented in the forum are available here.

Media Coverage:

Below are links to the articles covering this poll:

Iranians Primarily Buy Health & Grooming Products Produced in Iran

IranPoll’s recent brand tracking study reveals that most Iranian households continue to use health and grooming products that are produced in Iran.

A majority of Iranians believe most of the products that are sold as European-made in Iran’s market are in fact counterfeits and lack the quality and standards of products that are sold in Europe. When asked whether the local presence of European producers would increase, decrease, or not have any effect on people’s level of confidence in products that are sold as European-made, a majority say such a presence would increase their confidence. Iranians are also divided on whether or not European producers have a good understanding of the needs and tastes of the Iranian people.

The survey was conducted among a representative urban sample of 700 Iranians. The margin of error for this study was +/-3.7. The fieldwork for this conducted during the first two weeks of September, 2017. 

Survey results are available here.

Ramifications of Rouhani's Re-election

University of Maryland CISSM has published its most recent study based on three nationally representative surveys that were conducted in Iran by IranPoll for the University of Maryland. CISSM was responsible for designing the questionnaires, getting feedback on them from relevant policy experts and practitioners, performing the analysis, and putting together the final report. 

IranPoll fielded the first poll in Dec. 2016, the other in the middle of Iran’s presidential election campaigns in May 2017, and the third just recently after the soon after the terrorist attacks in Tehran. The first poll with a sample size of 1,015, was conducted May 8–11, 2017, a week before Iran’s presidential election. The other, with a sample size of 1,004, was conducted June 11–17, 2017, a week after the terror attacks in Tehran.

The study covers a wide range of issues. The study shows that an overwhelming majority of Iranians are likely to find a bill similar to the new sanctions bill that was just passed in the U.S. house of representative to be at odds with U.S. obligations under the nuclear agreement (see Q13). It also shows that while Iranians are still optimistic about the nuclear deal their country negotiated with the P5+1 countries two years ago, they would support a form of retaliation if President Trump decides to abrogate the agreement.

The study looks at Iran’s May 2017 presidential election as well. It shows that Rouhani’s victory was not a given and that he could have faced a much stronger challenge if opponents behaved differently. The poll also covers other issues including Iran’s involvement in the conflicts in Syria and Iraq.

The detailed frequency table of the poll could be found here.

 

Main Findings:

The following charts have been produced by CISSM.

 

Live C-SPAN Coverage:

C-SPAN 3 is covering this poll live:

C-SPAN live Coverage

 

Media Coverage:

Below are links to the articles covering this poll: