Iranian Public Opinion Under “Maximum Pressure”

University of Maryland CISSM has published its most recent study based on three consecutive waves of nationally representative surveys that were conducted in Iran by IranPoll for the University of Maryland. University of Maryland CISSM was responsible for designing the questionnaires, getting feedback on them from relevant policy experts and practitioners, performing the analysis, and putting together the final report.

IranPoll partially sponsored the collection of these surveys through “IranPoll Opinion Research Support Fund in Memory of Professor Thomas Schelling”.

Survey results were released on Oct 16, 2019 in the Atlantic Council (Washington DC). The surveys cover a wide range of issues, including Iran’s regional involvements, attitudes toward the JCPOA and its future, and current political and economic state of affairs in Iran.

Telephone interviews of 1,002 Iranians were done April 17 through May 4, 2019. A second wave of interviews with 1,009 Iranians was conducted August 25-29. A third wave with 1,004 Iranians was conducted October 1-8. The margin of error for each wave was +/- 3.1 percent. Surveys were conducted using IranPoll’s standard nationally representative probabilistic sampling as detailed here.

MAIN FINDINGS:

Below please find the results of this survey in greater detail.

  • The frequency tables of survey results are available here.

  • The presentation of the results by University of Maryland CISSM at the Atlantic Council could be watched here.

  • The report written based on the survey results by University of Maryland CISSM is available for download here.

  • Charts showing some of the results created by University of Maryland CISSM is available here and below.

MEDIA COVERAGE:

Below are links to the articles covering this poll:


Creation of Iran Consumer Confidence Index (ICCI)

Consumer confidence indices (CCI) provide an indication of future developments of households’ consumption and saving, based upon answers given by general population regarding their expected financial situation, their sentiment about the general economic situation, unemployment and capability of savings.

Such indices are the arithmetic average of the balances (in percentage points) of the answers to the questions on the past and expected financial situation of households, the expected general economic situation and the intentions to make major purchases over the next 12 months.

A high Consumer Confidence Index signals a boost in the consumers’ confidence towards the future economic situation and a low index indicates a pessimistic attitude towards future developments in the economy.

Based on available information, CCI has never been collected in Iran’s history. IranPoll is proud to conduct the first such study in Iran. Out of different methods used for CCI, Harmonised EU Programme is selected for Iran. European Commission Directorate-general for Economic and Financial Affairs conducts the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, set up in 1961, with a sample size of 39,900 consumers monthly surveyed in 27 EU countries.

The sampling methodology utilized by IranPoll is CATI probabilistic sampling (Probability Proportional to Size) with a nationally representative 100% coverage across country including rural areas. A stratified (two strata: region and type of locality) sample with Probability Proportional to Size (PPS) selection of Primary Sampling Unit (PSU) (urban settlements and rural districts) and Secondary Sampling Unit (SSU) (municipal districts in large cities), random selection of household using RDD, and the random table method of selecting respondents within randomly selected households was utilized.

Two waves of Iran Consumer Confidence Index (ICCI) have been collected.

Wave 1:

  • n=1,877,

  • Collected from Jan. 12 – Feb. 16, 2019.

  • AAPOR v4: Response Rate 4=0.617, Cooperation Rate 4=0.820, Refusal Rate 3=0.146, Contact Rate 3=0.832

Wave 2:

  • n=1,005,

  • Collected from Apr. 17 – May. 4, 2019.

Details of sampling methodology is available here.

MAIN FINDINGS:

Further information on sampling, interviewer training, and QC is available by request. IranPoll has detailed ICCI data available for interested parties. Please contact us at sales@IranPoll.com for further information.

Below please find further information about ICCI in greater detail:

  • The description and detailed questions and response options used in fielding ICCI are available here.

  • The PowerPoint slides highlighting some elements of ICCI are available here. These slides were originally presented at the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) and World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR) annual conference on May 16-21, 2019 at Toronto, Canada by Dr. Amir Farmanesh CEO of People Analytics (IranPoll).

Library of Congress, Gallup, and IranPoll

IranPoll is proud to announce that United States Library of Congress has entered IranPoll’s coverage of Iran’s presidential election into its permanent web archive.

The Library of Congress’s archive of IranPoll could be accessed here: https://www.loc.gov/item/lcwaN0019089

As stated on LOC’s website: “The Library of Congress Web Archive selects, preserves, and provides access to archived web content selected by subject experts from across the Library, so that it will be available for researchers today and in the future.”

The webpage immortalized by the Library of Congress, was about IranPoll’s coverage of 2017 Iranian presidential election. IranPoll’s prediction from 3 days before the election was published by The Economist 20 hours before the initial official results were declared and was a fully accurate prediction of the outcome.

 
IranPoll series has become one of the best snapshots of public opinion in Iran over recent years, with its polling predictions for the May 2017 presidential elections accurate within less than 2 percentage points.
— The Washington Post, Feb 2, 2018

IranPoll is also proud to announce that it is the winner of Gallup’s 2018 award for Quality.

We are truly honored for this remarkable recognition and thank all of our clients for holding us to such a high standard.
— Dr. Amir Farmanesh, Chairman and CEO of People Analytics (IranPoll), Mar 4, 2019

State of Iran Survey Series (Dec 2018 wave)

As almost one year has passed since President Trump’s decision on abrogating the Iran nuclear deal, we would like to attract your attention to IranPoll’s new wave in the “State of Iran” survey series conducted among a representative sample of Iranians on December 2018. The “State of Iran” survey series is designed to track the trends regarding Iranian people’s attitudes toward the foreign policy, nuclear deal, and Iran’s state of economy.

The survey shows that while vast majority of Iranians continue saying that Iran’s economy is bad and that it is getting worse, there are slight signs of improvements in the trend (Q1-2 and Slides 7-8). Keeping up with the previous trend, increasing majority say that the nuclear deal has not yet been able to improve the living condition of ordinary Iranians (Q6 and Slide 14). In addition, Iranians are becoming less confident that other P5+1 countries will live by the terms of the JCPOA (Q9 and Slide 10). They also blame European countries for moving too slow to meet their obligations under JCPOA (Q10-11 and Slides 11-12).

Meantime JCPOA’s popularity decline has finally plateaued in its all-time-low, and a stable majority of Iranians support it even after knowing what in reality it can offer (Q5 and Slide 16). Even under the pressure of looming conflict with West, majority of Iranians keep believing that it is possible to find common ground for peaceful coexistence with West (Q24 and Slide 18). This optimistic view towards possibility for peace, has been a stable trend over years of IranPoll’s opinion polling in Iran.

For Dec 2018 wave, telephone interviews of 1,017 Iranians were done on December 4–12, 2018. The margin of error was +/- 3.1%. It was a nationally representative survey using our standard probabilistic sampling as detailed here.


MAIN FINDINGS:

Below please find the results of this survey in greater detail.

MEDIA COVERAGE:

Below are links to the articles covering this poll:

Iran Social Survey (ISS)

From November 6 to December 29, 2016, IranPoll conducted a nationally representative survey with a sample size of 5,005 for Princeton University using our standard probabilistic sampling as detailed here. The results of this survey are published here, and the full PDF report is also available here.

The data were collected as a part of Iran Social Survey (ISS). IranPoll interviewers for ISS project asked respondents about civil society participation, household usage of state social services, self-identification across ethnic or language groups, and family demographics including parents and grandparents’ occupational histories.

The scholars from Princeton University and University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) who were in charge of this study conducted a number of quality controls on the data collected for them by IranPoll. They concluded in their final report (page 24):

Recent technological advances have afforded social scientists new opportunities to monitor the design and implementation of survey questions, participate in fieldwork, and improve various quality control mechanisms, such as listening to a sample of recorded interviews. […]

Importantly, self-reported demographic and turnout data, as described above, match figures found in the Iranian census and released by the Ministry of Interior. Falsification techniques, such as calculating the percentage of matching interviews, were applied to the data as an additional check after the survey data was initially collected.

On Feb 4, 2018, one of the scholars in charge of the project from Princeton University published further details about the quality control techniques they utilized to test IranPoll data on his Twitter account available here. The scholar concluded:

We took advantage of existing techniques to ensure we could trust the data: for example, we listened to a random sample of anonymized interviews to gauge the comfort level of respondents. We tested different terms to ensure the reliable measurement of important concepts. […]

We used this technique (percentMatch) after we conducted our own survey with @IranPoll. Here is what we found: a normal distribution, zero interviews with a maximum percent match of 85%, 45 interviews (<1%) with a maximum percent match over 80%.

IranPoll is proud that our collected data satisfied the scientific standards and quality control techniques conducted by these scholars.

Below are three images from the report and the result of the “percentMatch” technique as published on Twitter (mentioned above):