Pre-election results (16 May 2017)

IranPoll is proud of providing the most accurate prediction of the outcome of Iran’s May 2017 presidential election. Our prediction from May 16, 2017 (3 days before the election), was published by The Economist in an interview with Dr. Amir Farmanesh CEO of People Analytics (IranPoll) about 20 hours before the initial official results were declared. 

On May 20, 2017, Iran's Ministry of Interior officially declared that Rouhani had won 57% and Raisi had won 38% of the cast ballots. Our prediction was less than 2 percentage points away from the officially declared results.

IranPoll is now releasing further polling results from the poll conducted on May 16, 2017 prior the Iranian presidential election. The study is based on a telephone poll among a representative sample of 1,007 Iranians. The margin of error is about +/- 3.09%.

Questions in this survey include:  

  • Q1. Please say the degree to which you have a favorable or an unfavorable view of:

    • A- Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf

    • B- Hassan Rouhani

    • C- Seyyed Ebrahim Raisi

    • D. Eshagh Jahangiri

    • E. Mostafa Mirsalim

    • F. Mostafa Hashemi Taba

    • G. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

    • H- Mohammad Javad Zarif

    • I- General Qasem Soleymani

  • Q3. If the election was to be held tomorrow, which one of following candidates would you be most likely to vote for?

  • Q4. If only Rouhani and Raisi remain in the race, who would you vote for?

  • Q5. Now assume that Ghalibaf had remained and, instead, Raisi would have left the race in favor of Ghalibaf. Also assume that other candidates besides Rouhani and Ghalibaf would also leave the race. In that case, who would you have been most likely to vote for? Rouhani or Ghalibaf?

  • Q6. Regardless of whether you are going to vote or not and your personal views about the candidates, which of the following candidates do you think will ultimately win?


The full report with frequency tables is available in PDF form here