Politics

Iranian Attitudes on JCPOA pre-Trump Announcement

Considering President Trump’s decision on withdrawing United States from Iran nuclear deal, we would like to attract your attention to a survey IranPoll conducted among a representative sample of Iranians in the middle of April 2018.

The survey was designed to track the trends on some of the previously asked questions regarding Iranian people’s attitudes toward the nuclear deal and Iran’s state of economy.

The survey shows that an increasing majority of Iranians are saying that Iran’s economy is bad and that it is getting worse. And increasing majority also say that the nuclear deal has not yet been able to improve the living condition of ordinary Iranians. These perceptions have taken a toll both on President Rouhani and the JCPOA’s popularity in Iran. While both still enjoy a majority support; support for both is at an all times low.

Iranians almost unanimously say that they have no confidence in the United States to live by the terms of the nuclear agreement and think that because of US pressures, European countries have been hesitant to trade and invest in Iran. Confidence in other P5+1 countries to uphold the deal has also dropped since Jan. 2018.

In response to a question asking what Iran should do if the United States violates the agreement, a growing majority say that Iran should retaliate by restarting the aspects of its nuclear program that it had suspended as a result of the JCPOA.

Telephone interviews of 1,003 Iranians were done April 13–17, 2018. The margin of error was +/- 3.1%. It was a nationally representative survey using our standard probabilistic sampling as detailed here.

 

Main Findings:

Below please find the results of this survey in greater detail. Also, the PDF version of this survey is available here.

 

Media Coverage:

Below are links to the articles covering this poll:

Iranian Public Opinion after the Protests

University of Maryland CISSM has published its most recent study based on another nationally representative survey that were conducted in Iran by IranPoll for the University of Maryland. CISSM was responsible for designing the questionnaires, getting feedback on them from relevant policy experts and practitioners, performing the analysis, and putting together the final report.

The survey was conducted a week after the protests and its results were made public at the Atlantic Council (Washington DC) on Friday, Feb. 2. 

The survey covers a wide range of issues, including the recent protests, Iran’s regional involvements, attitudes toward the JCPOA and its future, and current political and economic state of affairs in Iran.

Telephone interviews of 1,002 Iranians were done January 16–24, 2018. The margin of error was +/- 3.1%. It was a nationally representative survey using our standard probabilistic sampling as detailed here.

 

Main Findings:

The results of this survey as presented at the Atlantic Council are provided below. The detailed frequency tables of the poll are available here.

 

 

Media Coverage:

Below are links to the articles covering this poll:

Iranian attitudes about US-Iranian relations in the Trump era

IranPoll has conducted its most recent poll in Iran for the University of Maryland CISSM shortly after President Trump’s election. The poll covers a wide range of issues, including Iranian people’s attitudes toward Trump, how they evaluate the nuclear deal (JCPOA) a year after the Implementation Day, whether or not they are open to renegotiating the nuclear agreement, and how they plan to vote in Iran’s upcoming presidential election in May of this year.

The poll with a representative national sample of 1000 Iranians was conducted over telephone from December 10 to 24, 2016. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.2%. University of Maryland CISSM designed the questionnaire.

The detailed frequency table of the poll could be found here.

The poll is quite revealing and timely in many aspects. As President Trump talks more and more about the need to review and toughen the nuclear deal that was reached with Iran in July 2015, the new poll shows that a large majority of Iranians oppose making any more concessions even if the US offered to lift more sanctions. Iranian people’s resistance to providing greater concession seems to be rooted in their lack of confidence that the United States would keep its end of the bargain.

The poll also reveals that support for the JCPOA as its stands is diminishing in Iran. Large Majorities say that contrary to their expectation the deal has not improved the living condition of ordinary Iranians and that the United States is actively obstructing promised sanctions relief.

Considering that the nuclear deal is regarded to be the most salient accomplishment of President Rouhani, the declining enthusiasm for the JCPOA is also impacting Rouhani’s popularity and chances of re-election in Iran’s May 2017 presidential election. Just as examples, the percentage of Iranians saying they have a “very favorable” opinion of Rouhani has dropped from 61% shortly after the deal was reached in the summer of 2015 to only 28% today and the proportions of people saying they will vote for him in the upcoming election has dropped below half. 

 

Event at the Atlantic Council:

University of Maryland CISSM and Atlantic Council will be holding a panel discussion on Iranian public opinion toward the United States following the election of Donald Trump. The event will present new public opinion poll collected by IranPoll.com for CISSM after the Nov. 2016 election on Iranian attitudes toward domestic and international economic and political issues.

In particular, the event will explore current Iranian attitudes toward the recent nuclear agreement, President Trump, potential changes in US policy toward Iran, the upcoming Iranian president elections, and Iranian economic policy. 

The event will be held on January 25, 2017 from 3:30 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. at the Atlantic Council. The event is open to press and on the record.

For more information and to RSVP, please visit CISSM or Atlantic Council

 

Media Coverage:

Below are links to the articles covering this poll:

New poll of the Iranian people on the anniversary of nuclear deal (JCPOA)

Recently IranPoll.com conducted a nationally representative survey of Iranian regarding their perception and assessment of the nuclear deal one year after it was reached. The survey was conducted for the University of Maryland CISSM, which also designed the questionnaire and wrote the report. 

Further details about our survey methodology is available here. Also, you can learn about our data collection capabilities here.

Please find the detailed trend and frequency tables of this poll here and the full report here. University of Maryland has also covered this poll here.

The survey covers a wide range of issues including:

  1. Perception of the nuclear deal one year after it was reached
  2. Rouhani’s standing as Iran’s 2017 Presidential elections nears
  3. Iran’s involvements in Syria
  4. View toward ISIS
  5. Views toward other countries

A year ago, when the nuclear deal was signed, 63 percent of Iranians said they expected tangible economic improvements within a year. However, a year later, three quarters (74%) of Iranians say there has been no improvement at all.
Such perceptions appear to be hurting President Hassan Rouhani’s prospects for reelection a year from now. Former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has closed the gap with Rouhani to just 8 points among likely voters in the next election, from a 27-point gap in May 2015.
A widely held perception is that the United States is obstructing sanctions relief. Three in four
Iranians think that the United States is actively preventing other countries from normalizing their trade and economic relations with Iran, contrary to its obligation in the nuclear agreement. Two in three Iranians believe that while the United States has lifted the sanctions it agreed to lift in the nuclear agreement, it is finding other ways to keep the negative effects of those sanctions. This may be contributing to the lack of improvement in views of the United States despite the nuclear deal: very large majorities—currently 73 percent —continue to have a negative view of the United States.
Eroding confidence in the benefits of the deal may be reducing popular support for it. A year ago and right after the nuclear agreement was signed, 76 percent of Iranians approved of the deal (43% strongly). Today, however, 63 percent approve of the deal (22% strongly).
Besides not yet receiving the anticipated benefits from the nuclear agreement, some of this
decline in support for the deal may also be related to the Iranian public gaining a somewhat more accurate understanding of its less popular aspects. A majority (60%, up from 33% last year) now realizes that Iran has accepted limits on its nuclear research. A majority (61%, up from 30% last year) also knows that many U.S. sanctions are not covered by the agreement and will continue.
Yet, a growing majority continues to believe, inaccurately, that under the deal, the International
Atomic Energy Agency is not permitted to inspect Iranian military sites under any conditions
(64%, up from 61% last year).

Below are links to the articles covering this poll:

Rouhani comes out of election with broad-based support, However, Parliament Divided Between Reformists, Conservatives, and Independents

A new poll of Iranians finds that in the wake of the parliamentary election, Rouhani is in a strong position with the Iranian public. Sixty-three percent say they voted for candidates who support Rouhani, while just 22% say they voted for his critics. 

Rouhani’s support is not limited to voters who favored the Reformist group. Even among those
who voted for the conservative Principlist group, 50% said they voted for pro-Rouhani
candidates, as did 81% of pro-Reformist voters and 61% of voters for independents.

This does not mean that Reformists now have the upper hand in the Majlis, the Iranian
parliament. Only 33% of Iranians who voted, said they voted for Reformist candidates, while
35% said they favored the conservative Principlist candidates, and 24% independent candidates.

The study is based on two telephone polls, one conducted before and the other conducted after the parliamentary elections in Iran. The first poll was conducted February 15 – 24, 2016 among a representative sample of 1,016 Iranians and the second poll was conducted March 3 – 13, 2016 among a representative sample of 1,005 Iranians. The margin of error for both polls is about +/-3.2%. IranPoll.com, an independent Toronto-based polling organization, conducted both polls for the University of Maryland Center for International and Security Studies.

The full report is available here. The full frequency tables are available here.