Creation of Iran Consumer Confidence Index (ICCI)

Consumer confidence indices (CCI) provide an indication of future developments of households’ consumption and saving, based upon answers given by general population regarding their expected financial situation, their sentiment about the general economic situation, unemployment and capability of savings.

Such indices are the arithmetic average of the balances (in percentage points) of the answers to the questions on the past and expected financial situation of households, the expected general economic situation and the intentions to make major purchases over the next 12 months.

A high Consumer Confidence Index signals a boost in the consumers’ confidence towards the future economic situation and a low index indicates a pessimistic attitude towards future developments in the economy.

Based on available information, CCI has never been collected in Iran’s history. IranPoll is proud to conduct the first such study in Iran. Out of different methods used for CCI, Harmonised EU Programme is selected for Iran. European Commission Directorate-general for Economic and Financial Affairs conducts the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, set up in 1961, with a sample size of 39,900 consumers monthly surveyed in 27 EU countries.

The sampling methodology utilized by IranPoll is CATI probabilistic sampling (Probability Proportional to Size) with a nationally representative 100% coverage across country including rural areas. A stratified (two strata: region and type of locality) sample with Probability Proportional to Size (PPS) selection of Primary Sampling Unit (PSU) (urban settlements and rural districts) and Secondary Sampling Unit (SSU) (municipal districts in large cities), random selection of household using RDD, and the random table method of selecting respondents within randomly selected households was utilized.

Two waves of Iran Consumer Confidence Index (ICCI) have been collected.

Wave 1:

  • n=1,877,

  • Collected from Jan. 12 – Feb. 16, 2019.

  • AAPOR v4: Response Rate 4=0.617, Cooperation Rate 4=0.820, Refusal Rate 3=0.146, Contact Rate 3=0.832

Wave 2:

  • n=1,005,

  • Collected from Apr. 17 – May. 4, 2019.

Details of sampling methodology is available here.

MAIN FINDINGS:

Further information on sampling, interviewer training, and QC is available by request. IranPoll has detailed ICCI data available for interested parties. Please contact us at sales@IranPoll.com for further information.

Below please find further information about ICCI in greater detail:

  • The description and detailed questions and response options used in fielding ICCI are available here.

  • The PowerPoint slides highlighting some elements of ICCI are available here. These slides were originally presented at the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR) and World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR) annual conference on May 16-21, 2019 at Toronto, Canada by IranPoll’s CEO Dr. Amir Farmanesh.